![]() “I like the peace of mind of CDs.” What recent bank failures mean for CD investorsīear in mind that an individual’s combined bank deposits, including CDs, savings and checking accounts, are FDIC-insured up to a total of $250,000 per individual per bank. “I am actively bringing CDs up with clients, because it’s very hard to predict what the Federal Reserve will do,” he says. On balance, Frank thinks now is the time to act. In another scenario, a recession could send inflation and interest rates plummeting, making those who bought three-year CDs seem like geniuses. In that scenario 6% or 7% CDs are possible in the next year or two. If inflation proves unexpectedly stubborn, the Fed may well keep raising rates. Keep in mind that the market’s interest-rate expectations are merely an educated collective guess by masses of investors. But if the Fed does cut rates later this year, you will likely have to reinvest your cash at a lower rate. If you have money that you will need in 12 months, these could provide an ideal alternative. It’s worth noting that while three-year and five-year CDs are currently yielding around 5%, so are one-year CDs. That’s because bonds’ market value traditionally rises as interest rates fall. If you need to sell your Treasurys before they mature, you might even make a profit. While that’s less than a CD, the trade-off is ready access to your money by selling your bonds. A three-year Treasury currently yields about 4%. If you want a safe yield but are nervous about locking your money away, consider Treasury bonds. Don’t treat your CD money as emergency cash, warns Cofrancesco: “People always underestimate when they’re going to need liquidity.” It’s important to be realistic about kissing your money goodbye for longer periods if you end up needing it before then, you’ll likely have to pay an early-withdrawal penalty. That makes locking in the current rate for three years or more attractive. And if there’s a recession in the next year, as many anticipate, the Fed could drive rates down more quickly. Futures market data suggest most investors believe the benchmark federal-funds rate will be at least a full percentage point lower by January. Many on Wall Street believe the Fed could even begin to dial back rates later this year. Perhaps for those reasons, the Fed’s most recent interest rate statement hinted the central bank may pause rate hikes going forward. Meanwhile, a series of high-profile bank failures have sparked worries about the economy. However, inflation has fallen to around 5% from a high of 9.1% last year, shortly after the hikes began. The Fed, which has been steadily raising short-term interest rates, in an effort to fight inflation announced its 10th straight interest-rate hike on Wednesday. ![]() “Whatever the three-year government bond is yielding, CDs should be yielding a bit more,” explains investment advisor Brian Frank, in Key Biscane, Fla. But spiking inflation last year prompted the Federal Reserve to fight back with a swift succession of interest-rate hikes. For years, CD rates languished at paltry levels.
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